As NATO leaders move to endorse an ambitious five percent of GDP defense spending target, concerns are emerging that the initiative could inadvertently create a two-tiered alliance. Spain has already secured an exclusion, and President Donald Trump is advocating for the United States to also be exempt, raising questions about whether all members will truly share the increased financial burden.
The proposed five percent target is structured with 3.5 percent earmarked for core defense spending, a significant jump from the current two percent, and an additional 1.5 percent for broader security enhancements like military mobility infrastructure, cyber defense, and societal preparedness. The 3.5 percent for pure defense will be a considerable hurdle for many nations, especially those like Spain, which currently invests only 1.28 percent of its GDP in its military.
Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, announced his country’s successful negotiation for an exclusion, clarifying that the final NATO communique will no longer state that the target applies to “all allies.” This could encourage other financially constrained members, such as Italy and France, to seek similar waivers, potentially undermining the unity of the alliance’s financial commitments. Trump’s persistent criticisms of allied contributions further compound these concerns.
The driving force behind this intensified focus on defense spending is the shared concern among European leaders about Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine and its broader implications for regional security. NATO experts have indicated that comprehensive defense plans against a Russian attack require investments of at least three percent of GDP. While a 2032 deadline has been floated for achieving the five percent target, the feasibility and enforcement of this timeline remain subjects of ongoing negotiation.