Oil prices are echoing the energy shocks of 1973 as Iran’s Gulf campaign triggers global energy alarms not sounded in half a century. Brent crude is back near $100 a barrel, European gas prices are surging, and governments are deploying emergency stockpiles built precisely for crises of this magnitude. Economists are dusting off their stagflation models, and investors are asking how long the disruption can last before lasting economic damage becomes unavoidable.
Iranian forces struck merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, fuel storage in Bahrain, oil tankers near Iraq’s ports, and the area around Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal Thursday. Three crew members aboard the Thai vessel Mayuree Naree were reported trapped. Iraq shut all crude exports, Oman cleared its main terminal, and Bahrain issued shelter-in-place orders.
Brent crude gained 9% Thursday to touch $100.29 before settling at $98. West Texas Intermediate rose 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has climbed from $60 at the year’s start to a peak of $119 this week. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28. Iran’s military warned of $200 oil.
The IEA’s 32 members released 400 million barrels of emergency crude — the largest such action in history. The US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. President Trump pledged to continue military operations and said prices would fall when the conflict concludes.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of a stagflationary shock. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.2%, and European gas climbed 7.7%.