The headline that the UK car market has just had its “strongest September since 2020” is a welcome victory for a beleaguered industry. However, this victory comes with a significant asterisk. While true, the statement must be understood in the context of a market that is still fundamentally weaker than it was pre-pandemic.
The 14% year-on-year growth and the total of 312,900 registrations are genuinely positive indicators. They show recovery and represent a significant improvement from the supply-chain-constrained years that immediately followed the pandemic. For retailers and manufacturers, this is a tangible and much-needed success.
However, the comparison to 2020 is key. That year was the first to be fully impacted by the initial shock of the coronavirus pandemic, which saw showrooms closed and consumer confidence plummet. Beating the figures from the depths of that crisis is a relatively low bar to clear.
The asterisk is the comparison to the years before 2020. The market is still selling significantly fewer cars than it did in a typical September during the 2010s. The ongoing cost of living crisis and economic uncertainty mean that the robust, mass-market demand of the past has not yet returned.
Furthermore, this “strongest September” was not achieved organically. It was heavily stimulated by a government grant for electric vehicles, which powered most of the growth. So, the victory is not only partial when viewed historically, but it is also conditional on artificial support. It’s a victory, yes, but one that needs to be read with the footnotes attached.